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        銆12鏈2鏃ャ 銆怌EMA鐮旇浼2019绉嬪绗崄浜岃銆 Understanding the housing market: the investment aspect

        鍙戝竷鏃ユ湡锛2019-11-28  鐐瑰嚮鏁帮細

        璁烘枃棰樼洰锛歎nderstanding the housing market: the investment aspect

        鎶ュ憡浜猴細寮犵鏍嬶紙娓呭崕澶у浜旈亾鍙i噾铻嶅闄㈠姪鐞嗘暀鎺堬級

        璁烘枃鎽樿锛歍he macro-housing literature generally finds the U.S. housing cycles, particularly the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession, are too volatile to be reconcilable by changes in fundamental as well as financial factors with rational expectation models. The few papers that do provide mechanisms that could generate large price movements bear little data support from both the cross-section of households and aggregate timing of events. This paper proposes a new mechanism that highlights the role played by household portfolio decision to allocate their wealth to second homes for investment purposes in generating housing demand, and therefore housing price, fluctuations. The result of this paper shows that this component of housing demand can amplify housing price response to changes in financial factors such as interest rates, loan to value ratio, as well as mortgage premium. The model is able to quantitatively explain the swings in housing price in the 2000s, and at the same time match salient features in both household and aggregate data.

        鏃堕棿锛12鏈2鏃ワ紙鍛ㄤ竴锛変腑鍗12:10-13:30

        鍦扮偣锛氬闄㈠崡璺牎鍖哄鏈細鍫712

        鎶ュ憡浜虹畝浠嬶細寮犵鏍嬶紝娓呭崕澶у浜旈亾鍙i噾铻嶅闄㈠姪鐞嗘暀鎺堛2006骞磋繘鍏ュぉ閫稿ū涔愪腑鍥界粡娴庝笌绠$悊鐮旂┒闄㈡暟鐞嗙粡娴庝笌鏁扮悊閲戣瀺瀹為獙鐝紝2010骞磋幏缁忔祹瀛﹀澹浣嶏紝2016骞磋幏缇庡浗瀵嗚タ鏍瑰ぇ瀛︾粡娴庡鍗氬+銆傜爺绌堕鍩熶负瀹忚缁忔祹瀛﹀拰鍥介檯缁忔祹瀛︺

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        杩斿洖涓婁竴椤

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        閭紪锛100081

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        閭紪锛102206

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